The Demuth calculus

Good morning, Reformers, 

“We know she’s gonna win. Is there someone to keep it close?”

That’s the assessment of a Republican I talked to this morning about the acknowledged likelihood that Sen. Amy Klobuchar will win the governor’s race.

They’re primarily concerned with Klobuchar's coattails and the strong possibility of another DFL trifecta. 

The model here is Lee Zeldin’s GOP run for governor in New York in 2022, when he kept the losing margin to 6 percentage points and Republicans flipped three U.S. House seats that were crucial to control of the House. (You know the name: His quixotic run was rewarded with a position as President Trump’s EPA administrator, where he’s laser-focused on rolling back air, water and climate pollution regulations.)

A bad candidate for governor, by contrast, would lead to more straight-ticket DFL voting and keep some Republican-leaners at home. 

That’s what House Speaker Lisa Demuth might be thinking about right now, as she decides whether to pursue a primary race after losing the convention endorsement this weekend. She can credibly say there’s enough concern about the voting process — “broken clickers” and questioned vote totals — that the authentic voice of Republican voters must be heard in August. 

The real reason she lost the convention, however, is that pillow mogul and conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell pushed his supporters into the camp of Kendall Qualls, who won the endorsement on the 10th ballot. 

Which means Lindell played kingmaker, after Mike Murphy, then mayor of the small city of Lexington, played the role in 2022. Republicans are never going to win a statewide race when Lindell and Murphy are the deciders.

But let’s return to Demuth’s calculus: If she runs in the primary, would she split the reasonable-ish GOP vote with Qualls, thus creating an opening for Lindell? 

And then what would Lindell’s presence at the top of the ticket mean for the November election? 

Here was a delightful detail from the convention by the Reformer’s Alyssa Chen: 

(Conveniently for your correspondent, Lindell’s book, “What are the Odds? From Crackhead to CEO,” was scattered about the convention center, including on top of a trash can. Lindell has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars of his campaign money buying copies of his own memoir….)

The filing deadline is tomorrow, so Demuth has to decide quickly. 

Huge thanks for Alyssa and Glen Stubbe, who worked and drove a total of 17 hours Saturday to cover the GOP convention in Duluth. And Nicole Neri and Michelle Griffith, who put in the work Friday and Saturday at the DFL convention in Rochester. 

Also, Senate endorsements: Adam Schwarze defeated the better known and funded Michele Tafoya; and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan bested Rep. Angie Craig after the latter dropped out of contention for the endorsement and said she’s going to the primary. Tafoya is also going to a primary. 

Today’s Reformer: 

Convention coverage pulled me away, so I need to rewatch, but “Nirvanna the Band, the Show, the Movie” is a great mockumentary in the tradition of the Christopher Guest comedies. 

The New York Times called it, a “barely coherent act of self-indulgence.” 

This comes after the Times referred to a scene in another recent favorite of mine — “Remarkably Bright Creatures” as “one of the few points of interest in this bland and sluggish feature.”

We have an ongoing debate in my household about the value of reading reviews before we commit a couple hours to a movie. I’m generally in favor, but I do wonder how many great movie experiences I’ve missed because I put too much stock in the snooty and idiosyncratic views of film reviewers. 

So your song of the day ridicules reviewers: “The Aphorist” by Protomartyr. 

“There's the failed lawyer haunting teen-punk shows

He'll explain his top five for '09 and what to eat

But, if you ever saw his bald-skull head

You'd be certain he's been dead for weeks”

Correspond: [email protected] 

Have a great day all! JPC