By J. Patrick Coolican | Editor-in-chief
Good morning, Reformers.
The differences between Michigan and Minnesota are significant: We have more college-educated voters, slightly higher turnout, and Democrats haven’t lost a presidential election here since 1972, unlike Michigan, which twice went for President Donald Trump.
That said, tomorrow’s Michigan primary might offer clues to our own primary results on Aug. 11, especially the U.S. Senate race on the Democratic-Farmer-Labor side.
Ron Brownstein, among the sharpest political minds for decades, surveys the landscape and finds Abdul El-Sayed, who has the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders et al., is likely on his way to victory over establishment favorite Haley Stevens.
El-Sayed is running against the Democratic establishment, and as Brownstein notes, “The effectiveness of this approach is a measure of how much the Democratic establishment has been discredited by the denouement of Joe Biden’s presidency and Trump’s return. Not since the Vietnam era have so many Democrats been so alienated from their party’s leaders.”
El-Sayed is a Rhodes Scholar physician and epidemiologist who became a senior public health official in Detroit and Wayne County. He’s clearly brilliant, but that’s not always helpful in politics. As Brownstein warns, he “regularly descends into arrogance and condescension. (He said in an interview released this week that, with Stevens, AIPAC ‘picked, like, literally the least capable candidate in America.’)”
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is also running in the Sanders lane, and her opponent Rep. Angie Craig is weighed down by her formerly hawkish stance on immigration, including a vote for the Laken Riley Act, as Max Nesterak reported in his recent profile. It’s harder for Flanagan to run against the Democratic establishment, however, because she’s by proximity associated with the administration of Gov. Tim Walz, for better or worse, as Max explored here.
Given Minnesota’s partisan makeup, electability isn’t the issue it is in Michigan. El-Sayed performs worse in November polls than Stevens against GOP nominee Mike Rogers.
This could all change with a resounding El-Sayed primary win, as Democrats coalesce around him and a bandwagon effect takes hold among independents. The overall electoral environment also seems to be, if anything, worsening for Republicans as Trump’s numbers continue to tank.
Still, this is not a seat Democrats can lose if they hope to win the Senate and put a stop to Trump appointees etc.
I’m getting 2010 vibes, but the mirror image: In a big Republican year, insurgents lost winnable races and the GOP didn’t take the Senate majority.
Meanwhile, the GOP gerrymandering of southern states has been so effective that the House is still in play despite the Democrats’ big generic ballot advantage.
That’s enough punditry for one day. To the Reformer:
ST. PAUL, MINNESOTA - JANUARY 11: U.S. Border Patrol agents detain Orbin Mauricio Henriquez Serrano after he failed to present citizenship documentation at a gas station on January 11, 2026 in St. Paul, Minnesota. Then-Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino watches in the background. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
By Madison McVan
Incredible reporting from Madi on the plight of a man whose violent arrest in January, overseen by then-Commander Gregory Bovino, was captured on video.
“I’m gonna break it, open the door. Open it! Last warning,” an agent shouted, smashing a glass-breaking tool into the bottom right corner of the window.
Henriquez Serrano panicked as the agents reached through the broken window and opened his car door, scrambling over the console into the passenger seat. Officers circled the car, opening the passenger door and attempting to pull him out. Others grabbed at his legs, still on the drivers’ side, yanking him in the opposite direction. The man who broke the window hit him repeatedly with the glass breaker, Henriquez Serrano said. He felt a sharp pain in his knee, which he’d had surgically repaired in 2022 after a car accident.
One of the agents wrapped his arm around Henriquez Serrano’s neck and pulled him to the ground at the base of the gas pump. Four officers kneeled on Henriquez Serrano’s back as they handcuffed him, groaning, his cheek pressed to the frozen concrete.
By Marcus Schmit
The executive director of NAMI Minnesota reflects on the horrifying news of two middle schoolers dying by suicide in Brainerd recently and what we need to do.
“Preliminary data from the Minnesota Department of Health shows that in 2025, Minnesota’s statewide suicide rate increased by 4% — more than 800 deaths in a single year. Rates are higher in rural counties than in the metro. And while suicide rates for older teens and young adults appear to have stabilized or declined, rates among children ages 10 to 14 are moving in the wrong direction. Ten to fourteen. Kids in middle school. Kids like Ava and Alexis.”
IN OTHER NEWS
Trump defends massive settlement for ‘great American Patriots’ of Jan. 6, attacks GOP senators | Reformer via States Newsroom
Go donate: Blood donor shortage | Axios
OH BY THE WAY
No gift links but New York Magazine has two great stories worth your time this week that don’t seem like they’d be related but seem acutely illustrative of this Trump era: Billionaire Justin Sun is blowing the whistle on Trump’s World Liberty crypto scam. And, a story about how a bunch of porn addicts rescued some teenaged cam girls from a pimp who learned it all from Andrew Tate.
More uplifting: Highlights of the Lynx 10th straight victory, including some dazzlers from Notre Dame grad Olivia Miles.
A song for your Monday, from LCD Soundsystem, who will be here later this month.
Have a great day all! JPC
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