Daily Reformer: Pundit predictions

Good morning, Reformers. 

Today’s the day. Polls close at 8 p.m. You merely need to be in line. More primary day basics here. 

The Reformer has six reporters and a photographer out today talking to voters, so be on the lookout for our primary and Election Day tradition of letting voters say the most unhinged things and publishing it. We’ll report results, with important context and a look forward to November as soon as results come in: Free, no ads, and free to republish. Support the work. 

As of 9:15, the Office of Secretary of State reports that 242,000 absentee ballots have been accepted, which is a pre-primary record. This could indicate a big turnout. The non-presidential year total turnout record was set in 2018, when about 926,000 voters cast ballots, or 22.8% of eligible voters. Perhaps voters are merely more comfortable and familiar with early voting now, so the early total could be cannibalizing the primary day total. A big turnout could be a good sign for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who is having more success with younger voters, polls show. Older voters typically turn out in higher numbers. (A key reason for our gerontocratic woes.)

To our traditional anonymous pundit predictions! I asked a group of folks for their prognostications for the following races: governor, Senate, 2nd Congressional District and state Senate District 46 DFL primary — Sen. Ron Latz v. Lynette Dumalag. 

GOP pundit 1: 

-House Speaker Lisa Demuth +4

-Michele Tafoya +15 (closer than expected but still relatively comfortable, she ran a direct fundraising mail campaign disguised as a primary effort) 

“The loss of endorsed candidates will hopefully accelerate momentum for finally killing or meaningfully neutering endorsement process (hello March or June primary?)” 

Rep. Angie Craig +8

Matt Little +7

Latz +20 “No real intel here but find it hard to believe he loses given no DFL endorsement in the race & what I assume (?) is big name ID and financial advantage.”

GOP pundit 2: 

Demuth

Tafoya

Craig

Little

Nothing on Latz. 

“But I’m always wrong.” 

GOP pundit 3:

Demuth

Tafoya

Flanagan

Little

Dumalag 

DFL pundit 1: 

Lindell

Tafoya

Craig 

Little 

Latz

DFL pundit 2: 

Lindell

Tafoya, handily.

Flanagan, barely.

Little. “He’s been the most organized since the outset and had such a strong showing at the convention that will carry him through primary night.”  

Latz “for the simple reason that it is nearly impossible to unseat an incumbent. Latz is in the fight of his career and he's not just up against Lynette — both of his House counterparts are campaigning against him. If there’s an upset here and Lynette pulls it off (which is entirely possible) it will because of her strong field game and relationships with local leaders in the district.” 

DFL pundit 3: 

Lindell

Tafoya

Flanagan 

Little

Latz 

DFL pundit 4: 

Lindell

Tafoya

Flanagan

Little

Latz race is too close to call. “Even partisans say it’s a toss-up.”

I’m fascinated at how pundits from each party view the races in the other party. Presumably they should have less intel, but in their reversion to fundamentals, maybe they’re onto something? Or is there motivated reasoning going on? A common cognitive error. 

I, of course, am not foolish enough to make predictions. FWIW: Kalshi has lopsided odds for Demuth, Tafoya, Flanagan, Little. I don’t see any betting — er, futures contracts — on the Latz-Dumalag race. 

Some other Reformer news: 

Evan Osnos, who was in China for a decade for the New Yorker, has returned there and published a major piece on the Chinese tech revolution. 

We can never know what’s propaganda and what’s real, but it seems real: 

Osnos talks about how quiet Beijing is compared to his previous tenure there because all the cars are electric. 

“China produces at least 70% of the world’s drones, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells. It deploys more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined…. In 20 years, China went from producing about half as much electricity as the U.S. to generating more than twice as much, at far lower prices; in 2023, it installed more solar power than America has installed in its entire history.”

This is also showing up in biotech; China now conducts more clinical trials than the U.S. 

Naturally, President Donald Trump has handed them one victory after another, cutting our own research budgets, turning back the clock to fossil fuels, making life impossible for foreign students and research talent. Then there’s our follies abroad.  

“Rush Doshi, a professor at Georgetown and a China specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, sees in Trump’s pursuit of territorial control a recurring historical error. In the 18th century, while Russia fixated on conquering Eurasia, Britain developed the steam engine; in the 19th and 20th centuries, while Europeans fought over Africa, Americans mastered the assembly line. Today, while the U.S. tries to govern Venezuela and hobble Iran and Cuba, ‘China is focussed on winning the technologies of the future,’ Doshi said.” 

So yeah, elections matter. 

Have a great day all! JPC