By J. Patrick Coolican | Editor-in-chief
Good morning, Reformers.
Great for gifts: Reformer merch.
The two major parties kick off bus tours today. Republicans begin in northeast Minnesota. Michelle Griffith is with the Dems at the Capitol.
Extrapolating from the early vote is tricky, especially as Minnesotans begin to adopt it in bigger numbers. You don’t know if the early vote is a signal of the final outcome, or just noise because the early vote is cannibalizing Election Day performance.
But regardless, Minneapolis early vote data gathered by retired journalist David Brauer is striking: In Ward 6, precinct 3, for instance, which is the heart of Cedar-Riverside, the early vote is 942; at this point in 2024 — a presidential year — it was 294. The final early vote total in 2022 was 548.
So: You can make a strong case that the Somali Minnesotan population is highly motivated. We can speculate about 2024 — e.g., recall Biden/Harris embrace of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nentanyahu. This year, no speculation needed as to what is motivating Somali voters: The president of the United States has repeatedly called Somali Americans “garbage,” sought to deport the 5th District’s representative and sent his masked immigration agents to harass people even though the vast majority of Somali Minnesotans are American citizens.
But it’s not just Ward 6. All over the city, the early vote — Brauer’s broad term comprising mail-in absentees, dropped-off absentees, absentees in person, early voting (after Oct. 16), military ballots and some other niche categories — has already surpassed the last midterm and in many cases is already stronger than 2024.
Again, caveat: These big early totals could just be eating up what would have been Election Day turnout. This could be low-hanging fruit. But if we’re seeing higher overall turnout in Minneapolis, that’s a major help to the Senate campaign of Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Attorney General Keith Ellison’s reelection.
Vice President JD Vance is here Friday for what’s being billed as a “major announcement” on fraud. Republicans, who feel like they have their best shot at winning a statewide race since 2010, need to juice their own base turnout — without President Donald Trump on the ballot — and persuade swing voters and DFL-leaning independents.
Because they are on the wrong end of Coolican’s Famous Minnesota Politics Theorem™:
There are more Democrats here than Republicans.
To the news:
Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty announces felony charges for right-wing influencers James O’Keefe and Cam Higby for impersonating registered voters during Minnesota’s primary election, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026. (Photo by Alyssa Chen/Minnesota Reformer)
By Alyssa Chen
Right-wing influencers James O’Keefe and Cam Higby have been charged by Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty for unlawful voting and identity theft after they pulled a dress-up stunt during the Aug. 11 statewide primary election, unsuccessfully trying to show that Minnesota’s defense against voter fraud is insufficient.
The men posted videos in August in which they went into different Minnesota polling places to attempt to register to vote using Minnesota’s vouching process, through which a registered voter can confirm up to eight voters’ addresses so that they can also be registered to vote. The two donned clothes traditionally worn by Muslims and put on fake foreign accents.
The men used names of registered voters, some deceased, to begin the vouching process, Moriarty said. They stopped short of signing an oath under penalty of perjury, a major deterrent against people misusing the vouching option.
By KFF Health News
While healthcare costs have largely grown faster than the overall economy for decades, they’ve escalated at a dizzying pace recently. In 2023 and 2024, health spending hit its highest growth rates in two decades excluding 2020’s COVID-fueled surge.
The prices that hospitals, doctors, and other clinicians charge have increased, along with how much care people are getting.
American health costs, expected to continue growing faster than the overall economy and help fuel it, are projected to hit 20% of the nation’s gross domestic product by 2032, up from just under 19% today.
At the same time, Americans are shouldering higher insurance premium payments and other out-of-pocket costs. Low-income and middle-class people with health conditions are feeling the brunt.
By Alec Williams
From a We Make Minnesota policy researcher: Blanket anti-tax pledges overlook the foundational role that taxes play in shaping a fair and functional society. Taxes are how we pay for the schools, roads, hospitals and other public goods that every community relies on. Minnesota does have higher taxes than many other states, but we also get less revenue from fees and other non-tax sources, which is easier on working families because progressive taxes ask more of those who earn more, while flat fees cost everyone the same.
Anti-tax soundbites may work on a debate stage, but the Legislature has to pass a budget in the upcoming session, and the next governor shouldn’t take policy options off the table before it starts.
The allure of an anti-tax message is understandable given both candidates’ desire to deliver on the broad promise of affordability, but the reality is that most pro-affordability policies would require more revenue, not less.
IN OTHER NEWS
Middle class affordability paradox: Wealth on paper, squeezed in real life | Star Tribune gift link
Is there momentum to ban AI, screens inside Minnesota schools? Racket (Let’s hope so.)
Nvidia chief seen as target of Chinese spy plot; Trump did nothing | New York Times gift link
Omar’s second marriage again under scrutiny | New York Times gift link
OH BY THE WAY
I recommend finding a good deal on HBO so you can see Sharon Horgan’s latest, “Youth.” Her willingness to put herself in mortifyingly hilarious situations is a great gift to us. Here’s a review “Youth,” about a middle-aged woman in search of love while trying to keep it all together.
Also, interesting that her character’s son in the show is played by the same actor who is a similarly sullen teen in celebrity classy trashy divorce drama “War.” (Credit to NPR for the phrase “classy trashy.”)
An Iggy Pop classic on a sunny Thursday.
Have a great day all! JPC
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