By J. Patrick Coolican | Editor-in-chief
Good morning, Reformers,
You should have received our fundraiser this morning. Please give if you can. Bonus: If you give, you won’t get any more fundraising emails from me for awhile.
How will Democrats blow this one? It’s the question on all our minds, though the answer might be less about the Dems’ usual incompetence than a systematic polling error that’s overstating their support right now, especially in the Midwest, and especially in red states. That is, grumpy Republicans refusing to be polled, leading to understated support for the GOP. The big polling errors in recent years have occurred with President Donald Trump on the ballot, and he’s not this year.
Still, there’s the money issue. Republicans are vastly outspending Democrats in key battleground Senate races, according to this AdImpact analysis.
Never extrapolate your own particular experience to the entire electorate, but the idea that anyone is making voting decisions based on TV ads is incomprehensible to me. Setting aside my elitism, ads seem less important than they used to in politics given the changed media environment. U.S. Rep. Angie Craig learned this the hard way during her DFL Senate primary against Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who beat Craig in a landslide despite being vastly outspent.
You need rough parity on TV/digital to respond to attacks, but I suspect there’s vastly diminishing returns on ad spending.
As I wrote about the 2024 elections, the sticker price on a box of Cheerios is a form of media that can be more powerful than any ad, and this year, the same goes for every gas station price display.
To the Reformer:
President Donald Trump gestures as he exits the stage during a midterm election rally at the Choctaw Event Center on Oct. 1, 2026, in Durant, Oklahoma. (Photo by Jessica Tobias/For Oklahoma Voice)
By Jonathan Shorman
One month from Election Day, President Donald Trump’s long-running pressure campaign over elections is approaching a decisive moment. For the past year, the Trump administration has sought to bend the U.S. election system to the president’s will across multiple fronts, despite the Constitution’s guarantee that states administer elections.
Interviews and public comments by more than a dozen current and former election officials, legal experts, lawmakers and others ahead of the midterms reveal anxiety over what Trump may do. Election administrators often plan for natural disasters, bomb threats and other possible problems, but this year many are also thinking about possible disruptions driven by the federal government.
By Amanda Watford
At least 31 states regulate kratom, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Some have banned or scheduled kratom, while others have imposed age limits, labeling requirements or restrictions on 7-OH and synthetic compounds.
During the 2025 and 2026 legislative sessions, lawmakers in 36 states introduced legislation to regulate kratom, 7-OH or synthetic kratom compounds, according to the Rockefeller Institute of Government. Many cities and towns nationwide have adopted sales restrictions.
Federal regulators are increasingly taking a similar approach, targeting certain high-potency and synthetic compounds while leaving traditional botanical kratom outside the latest federal scheduling actions.
Expect to see more action on this issue at the Legislature next year.
By Aaron Zellhoefer
Delisting would be catastrophic for Minnesota’s wolves, which would almost certainly face trophy hunting and recreational trapping seasons. Such killing rips wolf families apart, as studies show that killing just one wolf can lead to the dissolution of the pack and the deaths of other members.
When Minnesota’s wolves were delisted in 2011, more than 900 were killed in just three seasons. Nearly half of the wolves were killed using steel-jawed leghold traps or strangling snares. When wolves were delisted again in 2020, Minnesota held off on a hunt until the state could update its wolf management plan. Prior to the finalization of that plan, a federal judge overturned the delisting decision, and wolves were again federally protected as “threatened” in Minnesota.
IN OTHER NEWS
Federal funds for local police enforcement accelerated Trump immigration crackdown | Reformer via States Newsroom
Lisa Demuth sits for interview | Star Tribune gift link
Dems are underfunding the races that could remake the map | Jonathan Martin in Politico
Another Bolsonaro and another win for the right in Brazil | New York Times gift link
Republicans could lose Kansas Senate race for first time since dust bowl | Bloomberg gift link
OH BY THE WAY
The mercenary behavior of people around Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been revealed in what they’re calling Qatargate, wherein some of Netanyahu’s closest aides have been paid big bucks by the Qatari regime to push bogus stories in the Israeli press meant to burnish the emirate’s reputation.
Most alarming about all this: The Qataris are likely a major financial backer of Hamas.
As Ruth Margalit reports:
“Since 2018, Qatar had been transferring as much as $30 million a month to Gaza. The money was nominally to pay civil servants and prop up infrastructure in a territory sequestered by an Israeli blockade, but many observers agreed that Hamas diverted a significant sum to its military wing.”
Sorry for the paywall but read the whole thing if you can.
Radiohead’s “In Rainbows” was released 19 years ago this week. Here’s “Weird Fishes / Arpeggi”
Have a good one. JPC
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